GOLD
Gold dipped this week to trade at 1226.60 but recovered towards the end of the weekly session as traders returned to safety. Gold registered its first weekly loss in about a month in an up-and-down stretch for stocks marked by a multiday rally in the early part of the holiday-shortened week. A U.S. economic report offered a glimmer that stubbornly low inflation may be improving toward the Federal Reserve’s target levels. The so-called core consumer-price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3%, the most since August 2011. Gold is eyeing a nearly 16% advance so far this year, inspired by a combination of concerns about the health of the global economy and growing expectations that the Fed won’t lift benchmark interest rates in 2016. Prices remain up nearly 16 percent so far this year, with turmoil in the wider financial markets fueling interest in the metal as a store of value while reducing the likelihood of further interest rate rises by the US Federal Reserve. That is continuing to underpin gold as it consolidates below last week's one-year high of $1,260.60. Momentum is strong. Yesterday gold moved up even when the dollar was stronger, so for me that signals that it is mainly central bank-policy driven," ABN Amro analyst Georgette Boele said. Gold tends to benefit from lower interest rates, which cut the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
SILVER
Comex, Silver futures for March delivery shed 5.9 cents, or 0.38%, on Friday to close at $15.37 a troy ounce. On the week, silver futures slumped 33.2 cents, or 2.64%, the first weekly loss in five weeks. Market participants have all but priced out any rate hikes this year, while the Fed is anticipating four more. A gradual path to higher rates is seen as less of a threat to gold prices than a swift series of increases. Policymakers discussed "altering their earlier views of the appropriate path for the target range for the federal funds rate," according to the minutes. After minutes from the Fed’s January meeting revealed that policymakers worried that tighter global financial conditions could hit the U.S. economy and considered changing their planned path of interest rate hikes in 2016.
COPPER
Copper gained steadily this week as Chinese stimulus helped support demand. Copper is up 2.61% at 2.080. Copper edged up on Friday and was set to log a fourth weekly gain in five, as traders bought into low prices to build stocks ahead of a stronger season for demand in top user China. A copper concentrates trader said there was good demand for shipments from late April to early May - traditionally the strongest season for copper demand in China. It's not a problem to place shipments further out, but if you were trying to place anything for the next month, you might struggle, the trader said. Prices have been hit by slow demand over the Lunar New Year, and global growth concerns that have flattened trade. But with factories ramping up ahead of China's seasonal demand peak in the second quarter, analysts say prices should begin to find support. "We expect copper's supply and demand fundamentals, especially in Q1, to improve on the back of seasonal demand recovery from
power grids and home appliance sectors, as well as resilient growth in the auto sector," Argonaut Securities said in a note.
CRUDE OIL
Crude Oil ended the week at 31.95 gaining 8.53% as producers started to discuss quota. Brent oil ended at 33.10 down 0.78% diverging on the week. Oil ended lower Friday as investors returned their focus to a global glut of crude, but the U.S. benchmark hung on to a weekly gain as bulls looked for signs of a bottom. Four major oil producers—Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Venezuela—proposed a collective production freeze at the January levels. Iran, however, has refused to join, reiterating its plan to crank up output and regain lost market share after the international sanctions against Tehran were lifted in January. Saudi Arabia’s finance minister on Thursday said the country wasn’t prepared to cut production. The talks between oil producers in recent weeks always seem to follow the same old pattern: no sooner are there signs that the countries might agree on a common denominator than the next denial comes, said analysts at Commerzbank in a note. We believe that an agreement between the leading oil producers is virtually out of the question. That said, the negotiations are not entirely pointless. For one thing, future cooperation cannot be ruled out, and for another the numerous reports also illustrate the desperation of some countries—Venezuela in particular—and their dire financial situation, they added. Indeed, some analysts argued that recent price action supported hopes that crude has found a near-term bottom. Even if they don’t amount to much, recent talks “may be the first indication of willingness to act to prevent prices falling further,” wrote analysts at Capital Economics. “It is also notable that Brent has managed to hold above $30 per barrel for most of the past four weeks. A sustained recovery may require something more substantial, but for now at least oil prices appear to have found a floor.
NATURAL GAS
Natural Gas tumbled over 8% this week to trade near at a 2016 low of 1.808 as winter weather remained higher. Weak demand due to mild weather forecasts in several areas of the United States also dragged US natural gas prices down. 50% of US households use natural gas prices for heating. Mild winter curbs heating demand and negatively affects natural gas prices in an oversupplied market. However, cold weather is expected in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic over the next week. This forecast could marginally affect demand and gas prices. Natural gas prices continue to move lower on a weekly basis as this trade has gone straight down from the original recommendation so continue to place the proper stop loss as the chart structure will start to improve on a daily basis, as I still see lower prices ahead possibly retesting 1.75 and if that is broken I think we can test 1.50 as extremely warm weather in the Midwestern part of the United States continues to plague this commodity. The fundamentals in natural gas are extremely bearish with all time high inventories as we were producing too many products especially in the energy sector including natural gas so continue to play this to the downside as I'm looking at adding more contracts once some type of price kickback develops, as I still see no reason to own natural gas especially as we enter the month of March, as springtime is upon us.
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