MCX COMMODITY MARKET UPDATES - 13 OCT 2017

Bearish IEA Demand Outlook Could Pressure Prices - U.S.  West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil finished down on Thursday, but off its lows after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a larger-than-expected decline in U. S. inventories and a falloff in weekly production on Thursday. The price action in the crude oil markets on Thursday suggests investors were more concerned about future demand than the weekly inventories picture.  From this we can conclude that the outlook for the market over the near-term is likely to be bearish because of the forecast for lower oil demand in 2018. Traders are saying the one of the IEA report was bearish because it suggested that demand for OPEC crude next year would not be sufficient to absorb all the available supplies. This likely means OPEC must deepen its production cuts to finish its job of bringing oil stocks back to the five-year average. This supports what I have been saying all along that prices are likely to remain range bound until OPEC and other major producers vote to extend the production cuts beyond the May 2018 deadline and also decide to deepen those production cuts.

Strong CPI Data Could Sink Gold - Gold traders ignored the rebound in the U.S. Dollar on Thursday to finish at more than a two-week high as the focus for traders shifted to U.S. inflation figures due on Friday which are expected to give more clues on monetary policy. After rallying most of the week, gold investors are looking for a little direction. Stronger consumer inflation data on Friday could create resistance for the precious metal along with increased demand for higher risk assets, a firmer U.S. Dollar and rising Treasury yields. Geopolitical uncertainty over North Korea and political issues in Washington and parts of Europe could underpin gold prices as well as weaker-than-expected consumer inflation data. Although gold didn’t react to the movement in the U.S. Dollar on Thursday, it still should be noted. The U.S. Dollar rebounded on Thursday after being pressured most of the week. The catalyst behind the rally was a report showing a rise in U.S. producer inflation. This news somewhat offset the weakness caused on Wednesday by the U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting minutes that showed policymakers were concerned about the impact of low inflation on the economy. The minutes from the September Fed meeting showed that many Federal Open Market Committee members still believed that another rate increase this year “was likely to be warranted, but there were a few members who said additional tightening depended on upcoming inflation data.

Prices May Be Supported by Heating Demand - Natural gas futures rose on Thursday on forecasts that colder weather will lead to increased heating demand. A drop in production due Hurricane Nate also helped underpin prices.

Traders should nearly no reaction to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s report showing storage last week increased by slightly more than expected. According to the EIA, utilities added 87 billion cubic feet of gas into storage in the week to October 6, leaving the total amount of fuel in inventories near the five-year average for this time of year at around 3.6 trillion cubic feet. Analysts were looking for an injection of 82 bcf. That compares with a 79 bcf increase during the same week a year earlier and a five-year average of 87 bcf for that period. The news about increased heat demand was a surprise. This could cause some short-covering but it would be better for the longer-term structure of the market if a support base was built instead.

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