COMMODITY MARKET LATEST NEWS & UPDATES - 13 OCT 2016

GOLD: 

1. ABN AMRO Downgrades Gold Outlook As Prices Remain Below 200-DMA.

The latest bank to join the chorus of bear calls is ABN AMRO, with analysts at the bank saying that the 2016 bull market is over as gold has dropped below its 200-day moving average, which comes in at $1,260 an ounce. December Comex gold futures last traded at $1,254.30 an ounce, relatively flat on the day.

2.The Dutch bank expects prices to end next year at $1,150 an ounce, down from the previous forecast of $1,450.

3. Gold Bull Market Over; Prices to fall in Next Two Years – Natixis

Unprecedented investor demand that helped drive gold prices almost 30% higher this year is expected to come to a halt as the market deals with higher global interest rates in the next two years, according to one French bank.

Natixis’ precious metals analysts Bernard Dahdah, who was named the London Bullion Market Association’s top gold forecaster in 2015, and Alomgir Miah said in a report Wednesday that they see more headwinds for gold and silver in 2017 and2018.  

The analysts said that they expect gold to average $1,180 an ounce next year, with prices falling to an average of $1,100 in 2018.

At the same time, silver prices are expected to average $15.70 an ounce in 2017 and then $13.20 an ounce the following year.

“For 2017 and 2018, we think that the biggest factor influencing the price of gold is the expected path of U.S. interest rate hikes,” the analysts said. “Also, we do not expect further rate cuts by the [European Central Bank] or [Bank of Japan] as this is likely to damage their banking system especially in the case of Europe.”

Natixis economists are expecting to see the Federal Reserve raise interest rates by 25 basis points three times next year: June, September and December.

They added that the Indian government’s gold tariffs are expected to continue to curtail domestic demand.

“Should tariffs be reduced, we could expect a stronger return in demand for Indian gold, but we believe that the current government will keep the tariffs unchanged as it pushes for its gold scheme to gain further momentum,” they said.

CRUDE OIL: 

Oil declines after Russia sees no deal with OPEC next week

US oil rig count rose by three to 428 this week.

The gas rig count fell by two to 94.  

COPPER:

China National Gold Group put its 20,000-tpy copper producing project into production recently in the Republic of Congo, according to China’s State-owned Assets Supervision & Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC).

The project has two mining certificates covering 1,479 sq.km and three mining rights covering 5,327 sq.km. Its designed capacity is 1,500 tpd and will reach full operation by the end of the year.

ALUMINIUM:

China AluminumInternational Trading Co. (Chalco Trading) hiked aluminum prices it offered inmajor markets today, it said on its WeChat.