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MCX COMMODITY MARKET MORNING NEWS UPDATES - 25 SEP 2017

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NATURAL GAS - Natural gas futures fell sharply last week as investors shifted their focus back to the traditional supply/demand fundamentals once the threat of a hurricane striking Florida was reduced. Traders also reacted to a U.S. government report that showed a higher-than-usual weekly storage build during the previous week and a shift in the weather forecast from usually warm in several key demand areas to cool. Early in the week, investors priced in the possibility that Hurricane Maria would turn northwest and head towards Florida. The state is still trying to recover from the impact of Hurricane Irma so a direct strike from Maria would have been devastating. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, utilities added 97 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week-ended September 15. This was slightly higher than analysts’ 91 bcf injection forecast.

CRUDE OIL - U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil finished higher last week in a mostly lackluster trade. Both markets continued to be underpinned by a bullish outlook for demand based on reports from OPEC and the International Energy Administration, however, investors were generally disappointed that OPEC failed to extend its production cuts program. OPEC failed to reach a decision on extending its production cuts and may wait until January before deciding whether to extend their output curbs beyond the first quarter. Russia’s energy minister said no decision was expected before January, although other ministers suggested such a decision could be taken before the end of this year. “I believe that January is the earliest date when we can actually, credibly speak about the state of the market,” Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said. Other ministers suggested a decision could come this year.

GOLD - Gold plunged last week as U.S. Treasury yields soared in reaction to a hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve meeting. The rise in yields helped make the U.S. Dollar a more attractive investment, reducing foreign demand for dollar-denominated gold. There was some buying late in the week due to a geopolitical concern, but the primary catalyst for the selling pressure was the hawkish Fed. The Fed drove U.S. Treasury yields to a more than two-month high after it said it would start reducing its $4.5 billion balance sheet starting in October. It also indicated the possibility of a third rate hike before the end of the year. The announcement of the balance sheet trimming was the biggest news from Wednesday’s meeting. All nine members of the monetary policy committee voted for the action. Current Fed policy requires the central bank to reinvest the proceeds from maturing bonds. On September 20, the Fed signaled it wants to wind down those reinvestments this year. As far as reducing the balance sheet is concerned, Fed officials said that they will reduce it by $10 billion in Treasury and mortgage-backed securities a month, to start, by allowing bonds to mature without buying new ones. The central bank also downplayed the impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma on the economy, saying that they “are unlikely to materially alter the course of the national economy over the medium term,” other than temporarily lifting inflation because of higher prices for gas and other goods for which the supply chain was disrupted.

COPPER - December Comex High Grade Copper futures are trading unchanged based on the pre-market trade. Despite a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom from Friday, there was very little follow-through to the upside. Buyers attempted to breakout to the upside over $2.9565 but backed away when the U.S. Dollar Index gapped higher. A stronger greenback tends to limit demand for dollar-denominated copper. The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending lower since September 5. Friday’s closing price reversal bottom may be the first sign that momentum is getting ready to shift back to the upside.


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