CAPITALSTARS- MCX COMMODITY MARKET NEWS & UPDATES - 29 MAR 2018

Gold Prices Edge Up as Dollar Heads Lower Despite Bullish GDP Data -   Gold prices inched up on Thursday as the dollar headed lower despite a better-than-expected GDP data. The yellow metal still hovers near a one-week low as a rebound in the dollar earlier this week sent the bullion to its biggest one-day fall in nearly nine months. Meanwhile, the dollar headed lower in Asia on Thursday morning despite bullish GDP data as the anti-risk yen was sent higher by the rising geopolitical tensions. Dollar-denominated assets such as gold are sensitive to moves in the dollar – a fall in the dollar makes gold cheaper for holders of foreign currency and thus increases demand for the precious metal.

 Jiangxi Copper sees high copper prices in 2018 - Copper prices are likely to be rangebound at a relatively high level in 2018 as supplies of copper concentrate tighten, Jiangxi Copper said in its earnings report on Thursday March 28. The growth in global copper concentrate output is set to slow down in the next two to three years as the last round of copper mine investment comes to an end. Consumption, meanwhile, will be buoyed by the stable growth in China’s power grid, home appliances and auto industries. A limited supply of imported copper scrap would also give support to demand. However, copper prices also face pressure from high inventories and tighter monetary policies. Slower investment growth in China’s property and infrastructure sectors will also limit the economic development and suppress copper prices, the report noted.

Snapshot: Nickel spot market in Shanghai - Norilsk nickel in the Shanghai market traded at a discount of 100-200 yuan/mt against the Wuxi Stainless Steel Exchange 1804 contract on Thursday March 29, while Jinchuan traded at a premium at 400 yuan/mt, SMM learned. Jinchuan offered nickel plate at 96,900 yuan/mt. Prices of nickel futures traded rangebound in the morning and traders made offers actively due to ample supply, while downstream consumers bought as needed. Trading was relatively thin, with most transactions seen at 96,200-96,900 yuan/mt.

Oil prices rise as OPEC seen continuing supply cuts through 2018 - Oil prices rose on Thursday as the producer cartel OPEC and other suppliers look set to continue withholding output for the rest of the year and potentially into 2019.The Middle East-dominated Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) together with a group of non-OPEC producers led by Russia started cutting output in 2017 to rein in oversupply and prop up the market. Brent, off which OPEC prices most its crude exports, has risen by around a quarter since then, which has lead to speculation that the restraints on production may be lifted. But sources at OPEC told Reuters this week that the group and its allies were set to keep their deal on cutting production for the rest of 2018. Despite this, Brent remained below $70 and WTI under $65 per barrel, weighed by rising crude inventories and production in the United States.       

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CAPITALSTARS MCX COMMODITY MARKET NEWS UPDATES - 28 MAR 2018

Gold prices dropped as the U.S. dollar rose and risk appetite revived in global financial markets -  Gold on MCX settled down -0.66% at 30699 as strength in the U.S. dollar, as well as overall gains in global stock markets, dulled investment prospects for the precious metal. Gold failed to breach 1357 level as the fears of an all-out trade war between the US and China are easing and risk appetite is back with all the three major indices in Wall Street posting a sharp rebound since Monday. Gold bulls took profits amid risk-on sentiment as Trump discussed, on a call, trade practices with China with German Chancellor Merkel and French President Macron. Trump and Merkel talked “joining forces to counter” China’s economic practices and intellectual property theft.       

 Zinc price awaits demand uptick - Zinc prices are likely to stay rangebound with pressure as downstream consumption recovers slower given adequate supplies of ore, SMM believes. China’s domestic consumption is affected as another round of cutback has been imposed on galvanising plants in north China earlier this week. The restriction was estimated to be removed no earlier than Wednesday March 28. Though short, the cutback affected demand as such restrictions have been enforced several times in north China this month. Once the restriction is lifted, downstream demand is likely to pick up from April. However, it remains unclear if zinc smelters will cut production ito hold up offers.

Copper prices climbed lifted by a rebound in equities on hopes that a trade war between top metals consumer China and the United States may be avoided - Copper on MCX settled up 0.48% at 430.75 gained on short covering, yesterday prices opened with gap as prices climbed across the board lifted by a rebound in equities on hopes that a trade war between top metals consumer China and the United States may be avoided. But upside will be capped with inventories on the rise, the market lukewarm about the near-term prospects for Chinese demand and the speculative community having sliced their longs to the lowest in a couple of years, there’s not much of an appetite (for copper) right now.

Oil prices fall on surprise U.S. inventory rise; China crude volatile - Oil prices fell on Wednesday, with Brent dropping back below $70 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crudes dipping below $65, pulled down by a report of increasing U.S. crude inventories that surprised many traders.Traders said the dips came after the American Petroleum Institute (API) late on Tuesday reported a surprise 5.3 million barrels rise in crude sticks in the week to March 23, to 430.6 million barrels. Official U.S. inventory data will be published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) late on Wednesday. "We'll see how the inventory data looks and whether these recent highs can be challenged again. For the moment it is looking like both WTI and Brent are stalling," said Greg McKenna, chief market strategist at futures brokerage AxiTrader.

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MCX COMMODITY MORNING MARKET NEWS UPDATES - 27 MAR 2018

Gold recovered from lows to after the United States said it would expel 60 Russian diplomats, prompting investor flight into assets considered safe havens -   Gold on MCX settled down -0.02% at 30902 recovered from the early losses as investors eyed trade tensions between the U.S. and China and their impact on the U.S. dollar and stock market. Prices for the metal found support as the dollar declined, but a rebound in U.S. stocks on the back of easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China kept a cap on the metal’s gains. Traders are eyeing on the fresh development from China and the U.S. “have quietly started negotiating” to improve U.S. access to Chinese markets. China reportedly considered the U.S.’s requests seeking a reduction of Chinese tariffs on U.S. automobiles, more Chinese purchases of U.S. semiconductors and greater access to China's financial sector by American companies.         

 Copper slid weighed down by a sharp rise in stockpiles and simmering concerns over the outlook for U.S.-China trade relations - Copper on MCX settled down -1.08% at 428.70 on fresh selling and tracking LME Copper which was down by 1.7 percent to settled down at $6,548 a tonne, touched a low of $6,532, its weakest since early December weighed down by a sharp rise in stockpiles and simmering concerns over the outlook for US-China trade relations. On-warrant stocks have nearly doubled this year and are now at their most elevated since September 2016. Also open interest in LME copper fell to its lowest in more than two years last week. In Shanghai, however, open interest has jumped since mid-January to three-year highs, suggesting large short positions have been building in China.

Impact of China's proposed tariff on US aluminium scrap remains to be seen - China’s Ministry of Commerce has proposed to levy a 25% tariff on aluminium scrap imports from the US in a bid to offset the losses brought by the US tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminium products. While the move may increase procurement costs for Chinese secondary aluminium plants given that 30% of China’s aluminium scrap imports come from the US, SMM believes it is still early to make such conclusion. More negotiations are likely to take place between the two countries before the tariffs come into effect, when keen sellers may look to lower their offers.

Oil Prices Rise Amid Middle East Tension, Strong Shanghai Crude Oil Futures - Oil prices rose on Tuesday morning in Asia, lifted by concerns that tensions in the Middle East could disrupt oil supplies. Meanwhile, China’s new crude futures kicked off to a roaring start.Escalating concerns that the U.S will reimpose sanctions on Iran, which would severely limit Tehran’s ability to export crude oil, have pushed up oil prices. Further supporting oil markets is Saudi Arabia’s push for production curbs led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia to be extended into 2019, in an effort to prop up oil prices. Iraq, the second biggest producer within OPEC, said on Monday that it also supports the agreement to cut oil output. However, such a move could face opposition given the relentless increase in U.S. crude production.

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MCX COMMODITY MARKET NEWS & UPDATES - 26 MAR 2018

Buying Frenzy Could Continue if Europe Responds to Tariffs Today -   Gold futures are spiking higher shortly before the regular session opening on Friday, hitting their highest levels since February 20 amid worries over the escalation of a trade war between the U.S. and China. The price surge is being driven by a weaker U.S. Dollar and the aggressive shedding of risky assets as investors seek shelter in so-called safe-haven assets after U.S. President Trump initiated long-promised sanctions, or anti-China tariffs on Thursday in an effort to protect U.S. intellectual property. The aggressive action by Trump is without ramifications as China responded overnight with tariffs of their own, triggering the start of what could be a long-term trade war. To recap the events from Thursday, Trump signed a presidential memorandum that could impose tariffs on up to $60 billion of imports from China, but only after a 30-day consultation period that starts once a list is published.        

 Zinc dropped amid given high inventories and a slow recovery of consumption - Zinc on MCX settled down -0.12% at 209.25 amid given high inventories and a slow recovery of consumption. Despite production cuts from maintenance works at some smelters, China’s output of zinc is likely to rise 8.5% in the first quarter of 2018 from the same period in 2017, given adequate supplies of ore in and beyond China. Pressure also seen as the threat of a global trade war that could damage growth escalated after U.S. President Donald Trump announced tariffs on up to $60 billion of Chinese goods. Trump is planning to impose the tariffs for what he says is misappropriation of U.S. intellectual property, but only after a 30-day consultation period that starts once a list is published.

Oil Prices Fluctuate Amid Middle East Tension; Launch Of Shanghai Oil Futures - Oil prices edged down on Monday morning in Asia, after a significant spike caused by tension in the Middle East. The launch of China’s yuan-denominated oil futures has also caused a stir in oil markets.Shortly beforehand, Brent crude futures surpassed $70 per barrel for the first time since January. Rising geopolitical risk in the Middle East has driven oil prices up. President Donald Trump continues to suggest the U.S. will pull out from the Iran nuclear deal, which raises concerns that sanctions will be reimposed on the country and severely limit Tehran’s ability to export crude oil. These concerns escalated just over a week ago when Saudi Arabia’s Prince Mohammed bin Salman ramped up tough rhetoric over Iran, pledging to acquire nuclear weapons if Iran develops them. His recent talks with President Trump in Washington, pledging to buy more U.S. military equipment, also show that Saudi foreign policy is becoming more aggressive.

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CAPITALSTARS MCX COMMODITY MARKET NEWS & UPDATES - 23 MAR 2018

Gold prices rose boosted by a softer dollar after a less hawkish than expected Federal Reserve and growing concerns over trade tariffs -   Gold on MCX settled up 0.14% at 30493 boosted by a softer dollar after a less hawkish than expected Federal Reserve and growing concerns over trade tariffs. The Federal Open Market Committee voted at the March 20-21 meeting to increase overnight interest rates by 25 basis points to between 1.50% and 1.75%, matching analysts' expectations. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose just marginally last week, suggesting strong job growth in March that should underpin consumer spending. A presidential memorandum signed by Trump will target up to $60 billion in Chinese goods with tariffs over what his administration says is misappropriation of U.S. intellectual property, but only after a 30-day consultation period that starts once a list is published. China unveiled plans to impose tariffs on up to $3 billion of U.S. imports in retaliation against U.S. tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminium products, as the world’s two largest economies stood on the brink of a trade war. China blamed U.S. export restrictions for its record trade surplus with the United States, but expressed hope that a solution can be found to settle trade issues between the world’s two biggest economies as U.S. tariffs loom.

 SMM Copper Aluminium Summit: Global supply of copper ore to grow - The growth rate of global copper ore output is expected to rise back to 3.3% in 2018, said SMM senior analyst Ye Jianhua. Given copper ore supplies in 2017 and price increases, the supply of copper ore in unlikely to be significantly affected in 2018, even as some 40 salary negotiations would occur at overseas miners this year. China's demand for overseas ore is on the rise as smelting capacity grows, Ye said at the SMM Copper Aluminium Summit on Friday March 23. In recent years, the decline of copper cencentrate supplies has lowered treatment charges (TCs) set between foreign and Chinese smelters, he added. China's aluminium output is likely to grow at a slower pace in 2018 given supply-side reform and restricted production during the heating season, said senior aluminium analyst at Shanghai Metals Market, Liu Xiaolei, on March 23.

Oil Prices Rise On Possibility Of Production Curbs Extending to 2019 - Oil prices rose on Friday morning in Asia, lifted by a statement from Saudi Arabia that production curbs led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia will need to be extended into 2019.Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Thursday that OPEC members will need to continue coordinating with Russia and other non-OPEC oil-producing countries on supply restraints in 2019 to reduce the global oil oversupply. OPEC, of which Saudi Arabia is the de-facto leader, as well as a group of non-OPEC countries led by Russia, have been cutting crude output by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) to prop up oil prices. The pact began in January 2017 and is set to expire at the end of 2018, but Saudi Arabia now seems to be pushing for an extension.          

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